Martin Wolf is Right

No Quick Return for the UK to the EU

Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, posted an article last weekend titled “Britain won’t rejoin the EU for decades — if ever”.

In his piece, Wolf noted that public opinion in the UK, as tracked by polls, showed that a majority now regretted leaving the EU and was in favour of rejoining. This was especially so among younger voters.

However, he went on to point out that there were a number of reasons why UK politicians would be reluctant to open the European debate. First, even kickstarting such a debate would create a great deal of political and economic uncertainty. Second, old political bitterness would quickly resurface. Third, the UK would have to rejoin the EU on significantly different terms than it had when it left.

He also rightly pointed out that a decision on the part of the UK to apply to rejoin would have to be accepted by the EU and, as things stand, there is no guarantee that the EU would welcome such an application. The Brexit process saw too much anti-EU poison drip into the UK’s political bloodstream, a poison which is still topped up daily by the likes of the Telegraph, Mail, and Express. What guarantees could be offered that with a further change of government, the UK would not walk again?

Cue outrage not from Brexiters, but from Rejoiners. How dare Wolf be so pessimistic about the chance of the UK rejoining the EU. Younger voters would demand it. And so they would. But Wolf was not being pessimistic. He was being realistic.

The EU is not waiting for the return of the UK, like the father in the bible waiting for the prodigal son. I never quite got the prodigal son story. The other son put in all the hard yards and then got pushed to the side when the wild-eyed boy who had been away turns back up. While the UK may have gone prodigal, it will not get a prodigal son’s welcome if and when it again knocks on the door.

Too many UK Rejoiners, it seems to me, think that the EU will simply wind the clock back and the UK can rejoin on its old terms. Not a chance. There were too many opt-outs from key EU projects, such as Schengen and the Euro, too many special deals. They will not be on offer again. Other Member States are not going to accept that the UK can have all the economic benefits of the Internal Market while demanding that it be exempt from every other obligation.

The UK is just not that important. If it wants to rejoin then it can rejoin on the same terms as France, Germany, Spain and Italy.

No point in arguing that Sweden and some other countries have opt-outs from the Euro and so should the UK. Frost and the Brexiters tried that approach during the trade negotiations. He put together a dossier of all the best bits, from the UK’s point of view, from the trade deals that the EU had with other third countries and demanded that the UK be offered the same. He was told where he could put his dossier. The EU deals on terms that are advantageous to the EU. It, rightly, does not accept that it is bound by precedents from other deals.

Rejoiners are mistaken if they think that the EU “negotiates” entry terms with applicant countries. It doesn’t. The EU has an acquis of laws, processes, and procedures that have been painstakingly put together over many years. It is a web of delicate political compromises between Member States with divergent interests. It will not rip up or amend the acquis to facilitate a non-member. The internal price to be paid if it did would be too great.

As Sir Con O’Neill, the civil servant at the heart of the UK accession negotiations in the early 1970s, subsequently commented about the then EEC rule book, all the UK could do was “Swallow the lot, and swallow it now”. (See here for an insightful comment on previous UK negotiations with the EU).

What the EU will negotiate are transition terms, a window to allow the new Member States to phase out non-compliant practices.

Just how easy do people think negotiations would be with a country that had previously been a member and left in the bitterest of circumstances? There will be no forgiving and forgetting. Pretend Brexit never happened. Not likely. It did happen and what happened and the way it happened cannot be undone.

I have seen comments from some Rejoiners that if EU membership is not currently achievable, then the UK should at least rejoin the Single Market. I do not believe that Single Market membership alone would be on offer to the UK. As I have said above, I cannot see the EU accepting that the UK can have all the economic benefits without the political obligations.

There is no point praying in aid recent comments by the likes of von der Leyen, Barnier, or Martin Schultz from Germany about how welcome back the UK would be. None of them will be around if and when the UK seeks to rejoin.

The rage felt by Rejoiners at the lies that were told by Brexiters is more than justified. The rage at the refusal of Brexiters to accept the evidence that Brexit has crashed and burned and has inflicted untold political, economic, and cultural damage on the UK is also justified.

But rage is just that, rage. It is not a political strategy. For now, Rejoiners would be better off focusing on UK politics and making sure that at least one of the major parties moves in a pro-EU direction. Will that take time? Yes, it will, but without having one of the major parties onside, there will never be an application to rejoin. The political parties are the gatekeepers, like it or not.  

But persuading one of the parties to return to being pro-EU will not be enough. British constitutional and political structures need to be re-examined. What other European democracy has a second chamber stuffed with 800 unelected lawmakers, there for life? Including a bench of bishops.

Perhaps write down the rules of the game and have them agreed. It’s called a constitution. Maybe look at the electoral system.

Before some Rejoiner tells me to stop raining on their parade let me say I am doing no such thing. I am being realistic. The road back will be long and hard. The journey has to start in the UK. The fault lies not in the EU stars, but in the UK.

Martin Wolf is right.