Scribblings

Back Home Again

It is good to be home, back from a trip to the far end of the world, New Zealand. A beautiful country, with stunning landscapes, and nice, friendly people. I could easily live there but, in the end, I am a European and like living in my own time zone, used to my own daily habits, my habitués, as the French put it.

You will notice that the title of this Substack has become just Scribblings, rather than Sunday Scribblings. Now that I am semi-retired from my day job, I have more time to scribble, and I may well post on Substack more than once a week. I have some things to say about where EU/UK relations are going, but these thoughts are for another day. Brexit is behind us. Done. The UK is no longer a member of the EU. Probably never will be again. Too many people in the UK cannot accept that the UK is just a small island off the Eurasian landmass. They still dream imperial dreams of days of glory past. In the words of Greta Garbo, the UK “wants to be alone”. Leave it alone, then. But alone is a sad and lonely place.

New Zealand is at the far end of the world. From Paris, it takes you 36 hours to get there, including stopovers at airports. But hugs from your grandchildren when you arrive make it all worthwhile. They grow so quickly, as we age so quickly. Who knows where the time goes?

When you have time on your hands, as I did as I sat on the back deck with a decent glass of New Zealand wine, well, it would not be me if I did not have a glass of wine, you have time to think about things.

Of course, I read the newspapers and the other web postings on a daily basis. The internet makes distance irrelevant. We live in one world, information flowing freely, other than where authoritarian regimes erect great firewalls. But we have to learn to separate truth from lies, and the world is full of political liars. Some in power would cross the street to avoid having to say hello to the truth. That is, if their age would let them and they did not fall asleep at meetings. Less of the Donroe Doctrine. More of the Dozy Doctrine.

My conclusions from my back deck musings? We Europeans are alone. We can no longer consider America a friend. The warm, protective embrace that America offered since WWII is gone. No one has said as much in so many words, but every vibe from the MAGA administration makes it clear. It is America First, and no one second.

I will write about this again in the coming weeks, but I think we have to see the US MAGA administration as two-sided.

First, there is Trump. I have spent my life watching Mafia movies, and I recognise a Mafia don when I see one. There is a scene in The Godfather where the old don, Vito Corleone, Marlon Brando, sits down with his fellow dons to discuss how the drug traffic is to be controlled. There is big money to be made from drugs, but Corleone does not like the drug business. Nevertheless, he cuts a deal with his fellow dons. Nothing personal, just business.

Trump is a Mafia don. Nothing personal, just business, especially if it delivers for him and his family. Trump does not have an ideological thought in his head. For him, everything is just a deal, a transaction. His book is called The Art of the Deal, not The Art of Negotiations. Deals are one-and-done and walk away. Negotiations usually involve the parties entering into long-term relationships.

Has Trump ever entered into a long-term relationship with anyone, business or otherwise? Answers on a postcard.

But behind Trump is a cadre of ideological White, Christian Nationalists (WCN) who appear to believe that the US should be a country run by white Christian men, dominating politics, and with women back in the home, playing the role of the “trad wife”, cooking, cleaning, and child-minding.

It is the WCN gang who want to throw US support behind the far right in Europe, Farage in the UK, Le Pen in France, AfD in Germany, and the rest. A world made safe for white men, with dreams of a return to an age of manufacturing with real jobs for real men, jobs which do not require much by way of education. Too much education makes you woke. Best avoided.

Trump will pass. His term ends in three years, but do not bet on him trying to find a way around the constitution and run for a third term. It is clear from his behaviour that he does not think the normal rules apply to him. And the three years to the next presidential election is a long time. Who knows what havoc can be wreaked between now and then? ICE, ICE, baby.

But Trumpism and MAGA will not pass because it reflects a deep strain in American political culture, a strain that at one and the same time wants to dominate the world but also wants to be apart from the world. Call it imperial isolationism.

So, best we Europeans look to our own future and learn to fend for ourselves. We have the resources and the strength to do so, if we have the political will. Russia is not that much of a threat. It is a small and broken economy, unable to push a war with Ukraine to a conclusion. It is little more than the Wizard of Oz. A small man, Putin, behind a curtain with a loud voice. But still capable of waging unseen cyber attacks.

No one, but Europe itself, can decide its own future. Time to let go of the American hand. Walk our own way. Whatever the price. All we need is the courage to do so.