Scribblings

The Durham Miners are No More

Yesterday, May 9, was Europe Day.

On May 9, 1950, the then French foreign minister, Robert Schuman, made a speech which laid the foundations for what we know today as the European Union. It first took shape in the Coal and Steel Community. The UK was invited to join the talks in 1951 to establish the Community alongside France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. When the invitation to join the talks arrived, Herbert Morrisson, then standing in as foreign secretary for the terminally ill Ernie Bevin, turned it down, saying, “It’s no good. We can’t do it. The Durham miners will never wear it.” Call it the first British opt-out. It was to take until 1973 when the UK, along with Ireland and Denmark, joined what was then the European Community to reverse Morrison’s opt-out.

According to the Financial Times, the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, “will on Monday give a speech calling for closer UK links with the EU, more defence spending, help for young jobseekers and support for households, ahead of a new legislative package in the King’s Speech on May 13.”

It is the “closer links with the EU” that interest me. As an Irish citizen, I would very much like to see the UK back in the EU where it belongs. Not just “closer links”. Properly back as a full EU member state on the same terms and conditions as the rest of us. No opt-outs and no exceptionalism.

But I doubt if it is going to happen anytime soon, and certainly not this side of a general election unless Starmer, while he is still prime minister, is going to tear up his red lines of no to EU membership, no to the customs union, no to the single market, and not to free movement. I can’t see it happening, can you? To Starmer, these red lines are what the Durham miners were to Morrison, except that what is left of the Durham miners are now all voting Reform.

All too often, those in the UK who are enthusiastic about the UK again joining the EU look at things solely through a UK lens. As the business commentator Simon Nixon has recently pointed out (here), the economic case for the UK rejoining the EU is persuasive. He is right. There was never an economic case for the UK leaving the EU, and those who still argue the Brexit case after ten years of failure do so on the grounds that “Brexit was never properly implemented” without explaining what “properly implemented” means. All their economic fantasies dissolve when confronted by the reality that the UK is but a medium-sized country off the northwest coast of the Eurasian landmass. It is not a world power, even if it once was. According to the former Labour European Minister, Denis McShane, the UK navy has more admirals than it has ships.

In any negotiation, if you wish to be successful, you have to ask yourself the question: How does the other side see things? If I were in their shoes, what would I be thinking?

So, here I am in Brussels, by which I mean the EU institutions of the Commission, the Council, and the Parliament, and the questions that cross my mind are these.

I think the first thing I would notice is that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, to give it its full and proper title, is unsure of itself and that its politics are fractured. This week’s local election results hammer this point home.

Labour has lost over 1,000 seats, less than expected, but a terrible result, nonetheless. After years of dominance, it has been reduced to a rump in Wales. It languishes in Scotland. Both Wales and Scotland will now be governed by parties that have independence from the UK in their DNA, as does Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland. To borrow from the US, Labour’s performance this week can only be described as operation epic disaster.

Can the UK hold together as a country? I would ask myself. And, if so, on what basis? The SNP in Scotland is not going to give up the quest for independence, nor is Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, and, along with the other nationalist/republican parties, will continue to push for a roadmap to a United Ireland. Plaid Cymru may be less bullish about independence than the SNP in Scotland, but that is also its direction of travel. The independence genie is out of the bottle and loose in the land.

The SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales, and the republican/nationalist bloc in Northern Ireland all see their future firmly within the European Union. Rightly so, because for smaller countries, as the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, has pointed out, it makes sense to be in an organised bloc.

Then I would notice that Reform, the current political vehicle of the arch-Brexiter, Nigel Farage, picked up over 1,200 seats in this week’s election. If anything, Reform is a right-wing English nationalist party, whatever about its advances in Scotland and Wales. And it hates Europe with a passion.

But we need to keep things in perspective. The Reform vote is only around 25/26% of the electorate. Would that see it win a national election under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system when tactical voting to block Farage could play a part? To put this another way. 75% of those who voted on Thursday did not vote for Farage or his party.

But then, the FPTP system, designed for a two-party contest, could well throw up bizarre results in a seven-party contest. Labour currently has a dominating majority in the House of Commons on just 34% of the vote.

Reform, and the Tories, much reduced as the Tories are, both say that if they are in government after the next election, they will tear up any deal Labour does with the EU in the name of “national sovereignty”. How that would benefit British exporters to its biggest market, they don’t say.

So, back to Brussels. What questions are EU leaders going to be asking themselves about the relationship with the UK, and with the Labour government?

First, do we have the bandwidth to enter into negotiations with a UK government, which appears to be deeply unpopular, over a new EU/UK deal that falls far short of membership, only to see that deal tossed aside by a new government after the next election? We need to think long and hard about this, especially given the many other priorities we have on our plate.

Second, as long as the UK has its FPTP electoral system, now that the party system has fragmented, is it likely that we will ever see a consensus for EU membership in the UK that can outlast changes of government? Or will we be dealing with a “Hokey Cokey” European policy of in, out, shake it all about?

Third, we would note that opinion polls suggest that there is a majority among the electorate for the UK to again join the EU. But we would not be 100% convinced, despite what the opinion polls suggest. Why the doubt? Because we think that many people think joining the EU means rejoining the EU on the old terms and conditions, with Euro and Schengen opt-outs and the budget rebate. When the terms of joining are put on the table, would the consensus to join again still hold?

So, if I were a Brussels negotiator, I would be wary of investing too much time in negotiating with the UK as things stand.

Regrettable, but that is the way things are.

Now I have always made it clear in writing these Scribblings that I am of the European social democratic political family and have a very deep affinity with the British Labour Party. So, here is my unsolicited advice. Cast caution to the wind and announce now that at the next election you will be proposing that the UK apply to again join the EU. Put clear European water between you and Reform and the Tories. Build a pro-European alliance with other pro-European parties. It will be a bloody battle, but better a battle than no battle at all. Something to fight for, and something to win. Fight on your ground, not theirs.

The mines are gone, and so are the Durham miners.

On, and by the way, I would also think about planning for electoral reform. The FPTP system is no longer fit for purpose.