Tom Really excellent article as always. One thing the Brits excel at is their excellent official histories of major policy events and comprehensive coverage of how decisions were arrived at. You capture the historical context of their European views and approach very well in this Article. Well done . Blair
Blair, as I say in the piece, I would welcome the UK back into the EU, not least because it would make things easier for Ireland. However, the point I wanted to make is that it would not be easy and would take a long time. Those who argue otherwise have too many European stars in their eyes.
Nevertheless I cannot (and will not) blame Starmer that he doesn’t want to get the right wingers and the press up in arms again. Just remember what happened when he dared to remove the painting of St Margareth. Plus would you want to have 24 h N Farage on all channels again? I am afraid I only exaggerate slightly
On the bright side: now is the chance for the party of the well to do shires to be a real opposition and just the party of watersports
I agree with the assessment of what is required for a long campaign by way of preparing the ground.
And particularly:
“Most importantly of all, what is needed are MPs in the Commons who will provide political leadership and not be afraid to challenge the Brexit orthodoxy. They need to find the cabinet ministers of tomorrow today.
And:
“[Those in the UK advocating joining the EU] also need business to be openly critical of Brexit and Brexit ideology and to advocate for EU membership.”
great piece Tom. agree 100% about a quick re-join. that's not on the cards.
I maybe wrong but I think the problems in britain run much deeper than just revisiting "a rejoin SM/CU or EU". I visit often and I am an outsider looking in but I think a breakup of the UK might really help britain find itself. And re-joining the EU/SM won't fix those deeper problems.
Northern Ireland looks very likely to leave the UK soon, re-joining the EU with Ireland. That brings the Act of UK Union to an end and an opportunity, maybe, to reboot britain. For me FPTP really needs to go...the big political swings every few years is not conducive to constructive governance and is fertile ground for populism. Replacing the HoL with an elected chamber and draft a concise written constitution would be handy too.
I think your three consecutive labour terms to rejoin is optimistic. More likely that labour fails economically, partly because of the Brexit deadweights, and Reform, or a coalition of Reform and indistinguishable-from-Reform Tories forms the next government, which ends in catastrophe. Whatever emerges from those ashes can start the process once it has stabilised things. You've got to hit rock bottom before you start to recover. That's why I'm no longer a British rejoiner and have become an emigrant (not an ex-pat). I'm too old to wait those events to work through; the best thing I can do with the last quarter of my life is to escape them and build a bridge-head for my children if they need to escape too.
Simon, very wise on your part. I am forever amazed at people on social media who think the UK will be back in the EU toute suite. It took 15 years to join the the first place, and the Brexiters were campaigning for 40 to get the UK out. Getting back in will be a lot more difficult than joining in the first place.
There's another issue, perhaps: comparative living standards. Economic growth in the EU, generally, has been poor for at least- just like the UK. For the EU to become a goal worth spending lots of political capital on, it needs to be absolutely as well as relatively worthwhile (Albeit, the smaller economies are generally doing well, and all of us would be poorer without the EU).
We await the implementation of the Draghi plan, and the recognition by the big economies that ordoliberalism has had its day. In the meanwhile, the US and China have chose a new route which the EU has not gotten to grips with.
We await Europe's versions of Google, Microsoft etc.
A fair point. Europe needs to find the way forward economically. For example, the European car industry is at a crossroads and is being badly hit by the Chinese. Too much regulation and not enough innovation.
I live in Europe and visit england often...at least 4 times a month. I really notice how poor the quality of life is in england compared to Europe. The demise has been so dramatic in the last decade, it's as if by design. Many britons I speak to are in double income households, yet, are really really struggling. Meanwhile, the schools, hospitals, policing and public services are all in tatters. I don't see the same in Europe. Despite the impact of the war with russia.
Europe wants the opposite of googles & microsofts. At CERN in Geneva there are a few exciting initiatives, Tim Berner Lees' INRUPT being one of my favourites. The general gist is to move away from that google/MS/Apple/FB/Insta model where it's way to easy to influence elections and/or monopolise via market domination and empower individuals instead.
"The next election will be won or lost by Labour on how well it delivers on economic growth, public services, and general wellbeing." The evidence so far is that Lab is unlikely to achieve much improvement in terms of economic growth, significantly improved public services, and general well being. It may not provide the same psychodrama as the last 5 years, and it seems unlikely that the Tories will change tack enough to return to power, but Reform will mount a significant challenge in the Red Wall, while the Greens, Lib Dems and Nationalists from will nimble way support from the other direction. Lab will be lucky to achieve an overall majority in the next parliament.
"We think Brexit was a mistake but we must all live with it" isn't going to inspire voters to go out and support Lab, nor its younger activists to work hard when the Tories no longer represent much of a threat.
Rejoining the EU may be a long way off, but Brexit will remain an albatross around Lab's neck for the next 5 years and beyond.
I did not say as much in the piece but I think it will take a new generation of Labour leaders to break the Brexit black magic spell. if you want to change the policy, change the people.
Tom Really excellent article as always. One thing the Brits excel at is their excellent official histories of major policy events and comprehensive coverage of how decisions were arrived at. You capture the historical context of their European views and approach very well in this Article. Well done . Blair
Blair, as I say in the piece, I would welcome the UK back into the EU, not least because it would make things easier for Ireland. However, the point I wanted to make is that it would not be easy and would take a long time. Those who argue otherwise have too many European stars in their eyes.
Well argued, as always Thank you
Nevertheless I cannot (and will not) blame Starmer that he doesn’t want to get the right wingers and the press up in arms again. Just remember what happened when he dared to remove the painting of St Margareth. Plus would you want to have 24 h N Farage on all channels again? I am afraid I only exaggerate slightly
On the bright side: now is the chance for the party of the well to do shires to be a real opposition and just the party of watersports
A lot to agree with here.
I'm happy to be proved wrong about anything I have said in this piece. However, I think it is a cold-eyed assessment of the situation.
I agree with the assessment of what is required for a long campaign by way of preparing the ground.
And particularly:
“Most importantly of all, what is needed are MPs in the Commons who will provide political leadership and not be afraid to challenge the Brexit orthodoxy. They need to find the cabinet ministers of tomorrow today.
And:
“[Those in the UK advocating joining the EU] also need business to be openly critical of Brexit and Brexit ideology and to advocate for EU membership.”
Thanks
great piece Tom. agree 100% about a quick re-join. that's not on the cards.
I maybe wrong but I think the problems in britain run much deeper than just revisiting "a rejoin SM/CU or EU". I visit often and I am an outsider looking in but I think a breakup of the UK might really help britain find itself. And re-joining the EU/SM won't fix those deeper problems.
Northern Ireland looks very likely to leave the UK soon, re-joining the EU with Ireland. That brings the Act of UK Union to an end and an opportunity, maybe, to reboot britain. For me FPTP really needs to go...the big political swings every few years is not conducive to constructive governance and is fertile ground for populism. Replacing the HoL with an elected chamber and draft a concise written constitution would be handy too.
I think your three consecutive labour terms to rejoin is optimistic. More likely that labour fails economically, partly because of the Brexit deadweights, and Reform, or a coalition of Reform and indistinguishable-from-Reform Tories forms the next government, which ends in catastrophe. Whatever emerges from those ashes can start the process once it has stabilised things. You've got to hit rock bottom before you start to recover. That's why I'm no longer a British rejoiner and have become an emigrant (not an ex-pat). I'm too old to wait those events to work through; the best thing I can do with the last quarter of my life is to escape them and build a bridge-head for my children if they need to escape too.
Simon, very wise on your part. I am forever amazed at people on social media who think the UK will be back in the EU toute suite. It took 15 years to join the the first place, and the Brexiters were campaigning for 40 to get the UK out. Getting back in will be a lot more difficult than joining in the first place.
There's another issue, perhaps: comparative living standards. Economic growth in the EU, generally, has been poor for at least- just like the UK. For the EU to become a goal worth spending lots of political capital on, it needs to be absolutely as well as relatively worthwhile (Albeit, the smaller economies are generally doing well, and all of us would be poorer without the EU).
We await the implementation of the Draghi plan, and the recognition by the big economies that ordoliberalism has had its day. In the meanwhile, the US and China have chose a new route which the EU has not gotten to grips with.
We await Europe's versions of Google, Microsoft etc.
A fair point. Europe needs to find the way forward economically. For example, the European car industry is at a crossroads and is being badly hit by the Chinese. Too much regulation and not enough innovation.
not sure I agree with this Shane.
I live in Europe and visit england often...at least 4 times a month. I really notice how poor the quality of life is in england compared to Europe. The demise has been so dramatic in the last decade, it's as if by design. Many britons I speak to are in double income households, yet, are really really struggling. Meanwhile, the schools, hospitals, policing and public services are all in tatters. I don't see the same in Europe. Despite the impact of the war with russia.
Europe wants the opposite of googles & microsofts. At CERN in Geneva there are a few exciting initiatives, Tim Berner Lees' INRUPT being one of my favourites. The general gist is to move away from that google/MS/Apple/FB/Insta model where it's way to easy to influence elections and/or monopolise via market domination and empower individuals instead.
"The next election will be won or lost by Labour on how well it delivers on economic growth, public services, and general wellbeing." The evidence so far is that Lab is unlikely to achieve much improvement in terms of economic growth, significantly improved public services, and general well being. It may not provide the same psychodrama as the last 5 years, and it seems unlikely that the Tories will change tack enough to return to power, but Reform will mount a significant challenge in the Red Wall, while the Greens, Lib Dems and Nationalists from will nimble way support from the other direction. Lab will be lucky to achieve an overall majority in the next parliament.
"We think Brexit was a mistake but we must all live with it" isn't going to inspire voters to go out and support Lab, nor its younger activists to work hard when the Tories no longer represent much of a threat.
Rejoining the EU may be a long way off, but Brexit will remain an albatross around Lab's neck for the next 5 years and beyond.
I did not say as much in the piece but I think it will take a new generation of Labour leaders to break the Brexit black magic spell. if you want to change the policy, change the people.
I agree. On a whole range of issues this is the most uninspiring Labour government since 1945.