Sunday Scribblings

The UK, Europe and the Myth of Sisyphus

Like Sisyphus, is the UK condemned never again to reach the EU summit? To never again be a member? To forever be on its own in its European homeland?

For now, and for a very long time to come, the answer is yes.

The Labour government can hardly get the boulder off the bottom of the hill. And who else wants to even try? The Greens? Good luck with that.

A week or two back, my friend David Henig, who is an expert in trade negotiations, posted on Bluesky:

Sorry “rejoin the EU and all the UK’s problems will be solved” is as much a simplism as the others, not least as there’s no instant process and no overwhelming demand on the other side to bend any rules for the UK.

Read this piece by David: here.

I commented on David’s post. Keep in mind that unless you want to run a thread, the number of words you can use in one post is limited:

David, I would guess that if the UK decided tomorrow that it wanted to join the EU (there is no such thing as rejoin), then it would take up to ten years for the process to be completed. During the accession negotiations, there could be a change of government in the UK, which was anti-EU.

I was immediately asked,: Where did I get the ten years from? Well, to be perfectly honest, it is just an educated guess. Because no one can know.

I was told in one comment that it only took a few years for Austria to join. So it did. But then Austria had not previously been a member of the EU, banging the door behind it as it walked out in an ill-tempered huff. And Austria was prepared to accept all the conditions of EU membership. Would the UK be prepared to do the same?

First, let us be clear about one thing. The UK would have to apply to join the EU in accordance with the procedures set out in Article 49 of the Treaty. There is no such thing as “rejoin”. There are no shortcuts, no quick ways back in for an ex-member. In fact, if anything, the opposite would be the case, because of old suspicions and mistrust. Once bitten….

The use of the word “rejoin” suggests that the UK could just turn up in Brussels and say, “We made a mistake in leaving, can we come back in and go back to the way things used to be? On the old terms and conditions.” The answer to that is no. Things do not work that way.

Like any other applicant country, the UK would have to negotiate its way into the EU. But anyone who knows their history knows that the EU does not “negotiate” with applicant countries on the terms of entry. What it negotiates is transition periods, how long it takes the joining country to make all the necessary adjustments in national law to bring itself in line with the acquis, the dense web of EU laws and practices that all members must adhere to.

Think for a moment about this. The 27 existing members of the EU are all bound by a common code. I know some have opt-outs from certain EU policies, but these opt-outs, like the opt-outs the UK had when it was a member, were negotiated from inside the EU, at the time the various treaties were being discussed. They had leverage to negotiate the opt-outs.

An applicant country cannot say it would like to join but wants an opt-out from certain key policies, such as the Euro or Schengen. Well, it could ask, but it would be told “no” fairly quickly. Why would the existing members who are bound by these policies agree to that? They won’t. If you have paid to be a member of a club, would you agree that a newcomer can join for half the membership fee but still have all the benefits? Especially if the newcomer was an “oldcomer” who had left but now wanted back in? You only have to ask the question to know the answer. Applicants do not have leverage.

I am never impressed when I read articles or see comments which say somethings along the lines of: “I have been in Brussels, and a senior official in the Commission told me that, of course, the UK could be cut some slack”. Senior officials in the Commission or “other sources” do not decide these matters. It is Heads of State and Governments who do. What head of a government wants to go back home and explain to their electorate that they have let the UK back in with all its old opt-outs? That the cuckoo is in the nest once again?

Who knows what issues individual national governments would bring to the table during the accession negotiations? Spain might have something to say on Gibraltar. France might want a 50-year deal on fisheries. Suppose there was a Sinn Féin-led government in Dublin. What do you think would be its asks? Maybe it would decide to hold a referendum and put the question to the electorate: “Should Ireland support UK membership of the EU?” Yes, might be the answer, but only if they give us a referendum on Irish unity. What else is Sinn Féin for?

That is the reality of these things. You seize the moment to advance your national interests. Cries of “but that is unfair” go unheard. There is no fairness in international negotiations because who would get to decide what is fair?

The UK would be no ordinary applicant. This would be the first time that a country that had been a member and walked out wanted to become a member once again. The scars of Brexit run deep, and the first cut was the deepest. Who is to say that if the UK joined again, it would not walk out again?

But none of this is going to happen anytime soon. The current government has no intention of applying to rejoin the EU, even if the economic evidence is overwhelming that Brexit was a failure, and even once hardened Brexiters are admitting it, but now stress that Brexit was really about sovereignty rather than economics. Unfortunately for them, “sovereignty” is not a Revolut card. It does not pay the bill at the supermarket checkout. And people increasingly know it.

Like in a Dracula movie, the Labour government carries around cloves of garlic in its pockets to ward off evil talk of joining the customs union and/or the single market. here.

By the way, joining either the customs union or the single market are not as easily done as some people seem to think. The UK could not just join EFTA and sneak in through the back door. The EU would have some say in the matter. Quite a big say in fact.

Even if the government were to have a dramatic overnight change of heart and decided that EU membership was in the best interest of the UK – which it is, by the way – would it need to run a referendum before it could apply? After all, it was a referendum which took the UK out. Or could the government just announce that it was to seek EU membership and that the accession agreement would be put to the people in a referendum?

Would a UK government be prepared to accept the Euro and membership of Schengen? No more opt-outs? Because opt-outs would not be on offer for reasons already discussed.

Even if the current government did decide to open discussions to join, will it still be the government after the next election? If not, who replaces it? Farage and Reform? Who would immediately end the discussions, and probably also try to tear up existing agreements. People in Brussels are aware of this possibility and are reluctant to invest time and effort in something that could blow up in a few years time.

The UK electoral system of first-past-the-post worked when the UK was a predominantly two-party system. It is no longer fit for purpose when politics are fragmented across five or six parties. Look at the majority that Labour has with 34% of the vote. Farage could be the prime minister with 29%.

If the UK again wants to join the EU, then the first order of business has to be for the UK to reform itself so it can live with EU membership.

Otherwise, like Sisyphus, the UK will be forever condemned to roll the boulder of EU membership up the mountain, only to see it roll back down again before the UK can reach the top. It would seem that the choice was made in 2016, and the UK is condemned to live with it.

The UK may never again be a member of the EU because the politics and process of getting there are impossible to navigate. A pity, because the UK belongs in the EU, but sometimes the consequences of the choices you have made close down your options.

If you disagree with me and with what I have to say in this piece, and I know many of you will, then walk me through how the UK again becomes a member, and stays a member, given the current state of UK politics. Step-by-step. No vagueness.

Wishing and hoping is one thing. Doing is another.

This is my last Scribblings until January. During the coming week, I am off to New Zealand to spend time with my family. I hope you all enjoy the coming holiday weeks and, like me, get to spend time with those who are close to you. Take care in these troubled days.