Thanks. I take no pleasure in writing this. I just tell it the way I see it. There are too many people running around, thinking going back would be easy. And quick.
This Sisyphus metaphor captures the Brexit tragedy perfectly. Your point about there being no "rejoin" but only a formal Article 49 application really cuts through the wishful thinking I see everywhere. The bit about individual member states using accession negotiations to advance their own intrests (Spain on Gibraltar, Sinn Fein on unity) shows how the politics would be even messier than the economics. When you challange people to map out the step-by-step path back into the EU given current UK electoral instability, you expose the fundamental impossibility that nobody wants to admit.
Thanks. As I say in the piece, I believe the UK belongs in the EU. But just because you believe something, does not mean it is going to happen. How long did it take the Eurosceptics from the time of Maastricht to the 2016 referendum to complete their revolution? Pro-European had better be prepared for the same long march.
You have to distinguish between "Rejoiners" who have no political affiliation and those for whom "Rejoining" is really a campaign slogan. The same applies to membership of a customs union or the Single Market. The Lib Dem, Greens, SNP and PC recognise that joining or rejoining may take many years, but the campaign is a stick with which to beat Labour, the Tories, and to a lesser extent Reform. Whereas the Liberals had campaigned for EEC membership for many years, it never became a centre of political debate. Brexit is fundamentally different as a political issue. Calls for rejoining are intended to keep Brexit at the heart of the political campaign in the next election and beyond.
Ultimately the future relationship between the UK and the EU won't be decided by the existing rules of the EU. It will be decided by the politicians.
It will be decided by the rules, because that is the only way the EU can work. There will never again be any sort of special deal for the UK. Join 100% or don't join.
We shall have to agree to disagree. QE stretched the Eurozone monetary framework to its limits without technically violating Article 123 outright. That was because of politics, not law - indeed the German Constitutional Court even challenged the authority of the ECJ.
Depressingly but probably v realistic. The alternative scenario would be if there was suddenly such immense strategic logic and mutual gain for the EU to create accelerated UK entry - but that would require an overwhelming external threat in which case minds would be focused on matters other than the details of EU membership. What a shitty little country we’ve become.
Some might argue that Europe already faces an overwhelming external threat. The US disengagement with Europe won't end with the Trump presidency, and Putin or some other Russian nationalist will be around for the foreseeable future. It is a sign of the political pig-headedness and cowardice of Starmer that Canada on the other side of the Atlantic is joining the EU's SAFE defence procurement programme but the UK, 22 miles from Calais, is not. (Though to be fair some might argue, given the UK's importance as a military power in Europe, that the EU too has shown some short-sightedness.)
Probably the best article I have recently read that summarises the UK's self inflicted woes.
Thanks for this kind comment.
There was a reason so many of us cried on June 24 2016, as we knew just what a barren path the UK had set off down
Thanks. I take no pleasure in writing this. I just tell it the way I see it. There are too many people running around, thinking going back would be easy. And quick.
This Sisyphus metaphor captures the Brexit tragedy perfectly. Your point about there being no "rejoin" but only a formal Article 49 application really cuts through the wishful thinking I see everywhere. The bit about individual member states using accession negotiations to advance their own intrests (Spain on Gibraltar, Sinn Fein on unity) shows how the politics would be even messier than the economics. When you challange people to map out the step-by-step path back into the EU given current UK electoral instability, you expose the fundamental impossibility that nobody wants to admit.
Thanks. As I say in the piece, I believe the UK belongs in the EU. But just because you believe something, does not mean it is going to happen. How long did it take the Eurosceptics from the time of Maastricht to the 2016 referendum to complete their revolution? Pro-European had better be prepared for the same long march.
You have to distinguish between "Rejoiners" who have no political affiliation and those for whom "Rejoining" is really a campaign slogan. The same applies to membership of a customs union or the Single Market. The Lib Dem, Greens, SNP and PC recognise that joining or rejoining may take many years, but the campaign is a stick with which to beat Labour, the Tories, and to a lesser extent Reform. Whereas the Liberals had campaigned for EEC membership for many years, it never became a centre of political debate. Brexit is fundamentally different as a political issue. Calls for rejoining are intended to keep Brexit at the heart of the political campaign in the next election and beyond.
Ultimately the future relationship between the UK and the EU won't be decided by the existing rules of the EU. It will be decided by the politicians.
It will be decided by the rules, because that is the only way the EU can work. There will never again be any sort of special deal for the UK. Join 100% or don't join.
We shall have to agree to disagree. QE stretched the Eurozone monetary framework to its limits without technically violating Article 123 outright. That was because of politics, not law - indeed the German Constitutional Court even challenged the authority of the ECJ.
Depressingly but probably v realistic. The alternative scenario would be if there was suddenly such immense strategic logic and mutual gain for the EU to create accelerated UK entry - but that would require an overwhelming external threat in which case minds would be focused on matters other than the details of EU membership. What a shitty little country we’ve become.
Never say never, and who knows what tomorrow may bring. I just write about things as I see them today.
Some might argue that Europe already faces an overwhelming external threat. The US disengagement with Europe won't end with the Trump presidency, and Putin or some other Russian nationalist will be around for the foreseeable future. It is a sign of the political pig-headedness and cowardice of Starmer that Canada on the other side of the Atlantic is joining the EU's SAFE defence procurement programme but the UK, 22 miles from Calais, is not. (Though to be fair some might argue, given the UK's importance as a military power in Europe, that the EU too has shown some short-sightedness.)